Housing Market Analysis
The Commerce Department reported that housing construction rose by 6.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.588 million units. However, as with the inflation report, analysts said the overall number was misleading and not an indication that the severe slump in housing was coming to an end.
They noted that the rebound followed an even bigger 13.7 percent drop in October. Even with the November gain, housing construction was 25.5 percent below the level of a year ago. And applications for building permits, considered a good indication of future construction activity, fell for a 10th consecutive month, dropping 3 percent to an annual rate of 1.506 million units.
"Great weather and an abysmal October probably played more of a role in the construction rebound than a firming of the market," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, said he believed the country was about two-thirds of the way through a severe housing correction that has already lowered overall economic growth by more than 1 percentage point. The correction has forced builders to lay off thousands of construction workers and offer attractive incentives to move homes already built. Zandi said, "Most of 2007 will be another tough year for anyone in the housing industry."
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Housing Market to Stabilize in 2007?
After months of sharp declines, housing starts exhibited faint signs of revival last month. According to the U.S. Census Bureau's report on Dec. 19, total starts edged up 6.7% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.59 million units.
Housing starts rose for the last time in September; May and January also saw small increases. The November news — though far from momentous — offsets the grim mood set in October, when starts on new homes plummeted 14.6% to 1.49 million, the lowest level in more than six years.
Why the sudden adjustment? "The economic indicators — interest rates, energy prices, income — are all pretty good, and the consumer fear of a long price decline is subsiding," says Gopal Ahluwalia, head of research economics for the National Association of Home Builders.
Read more about predictions concerning housing market for next year…
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