September 27, 2006

Home Price and Demand Forecast

Home Price and Demand Forecast

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Average home prices are expected to�stay flat through about the middle of next year.� By then, builders will have curtailed supply enough to allow the current overhang of about 300,000 houses nationwide to start to be absorbed by the market.

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Still, some analysts predict, sellers will face a dismal spring next year, usually the best selling season.

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Housing will play a big part in slowing job growth. Next year, net employment growth will slacken to an average of 117,000 a month.� Home building and related fields…mortgage finance, furnishings, design, landscaping, etc…have made up 25% of overall job growth since 2002.

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The housing cooldown will have a broader reach than was expected just a few months ago. Then, it seemed that the bulk of the downturn would be restricted to former boom areas, located mainly on the coasts.� But sluggishness in some industries, especially the auto industry, is taking its toll on some inland areas, notably Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and parts of Pennsylvania�and New York.

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By late 2007, homeownership is expected to resume its historical role as a relatively secure store of value that also provides shelter.

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