December 31, 2006

Housing Market Analysis

Housing Market Analysis

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The Commerce Department reported that housing construction rose by 6.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.588 million units.� However, as with the inflation report, analysts said the overall number was misleading and not an indication that the severe slump in housing was coming to an end.

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They noted that the rebound followed an even bigger 13.7 percent drop in October. Even with the November gain, housing construction was 25.5 percent below the level of a year ago.� And applications for building permits, considered a good indication of future construction activity, fell for a 10th consecutive month, dropping 3 percent to an annual rate of 1.506 million units.

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"Great weather and an abysmal October probably played more of a role in the construction rebound than a firming of the market," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.

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Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, said he believed the country was about two-thirds of the way through a severe housing correction that has already lowered overall economic growth by more than 1 percentage point. The correction has forced builders to lay off thousands of construction workers and offer attractive incentives to move homes already built. � Zandi said, "Most of 2007 will be another tough year for anyone in the housing industry."

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